A favourable macro-environment, falling US yields and strong earnings should see the rally in Indian stocks extend to the first half of 2024. With the Sensex having crossed the 71,000 mark and the Nifty having hit 21,000, both gauges are at new highs.
As HSBC points out, India has been among Asia’s standout markets in recent years, with the FTSE India rising 15.2% in 2023 so far, in dollar terms, compared to the FTSE AxJ rising 0.4%.
Christopher Wood of Jefferies said last week he doesn’t favour a dramatic move by selling Indian equities and buying into China, as India remains the structurally favourite long-term growth story.
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The key risk on the horizon, according to strategists at HSBC, is a fractured mandate following the general elections; the markets could be volatile ahead of the polls.
JPMorgan remains overweight structurally on India citing prominently high visibility of growth over the next few years as a key driver for the markets. It also highlights the virtuous cycle of investor participation, deepening and broadening liquidity and capital issuance in the financial markets as factor that could support the strong (and unparalleled) track record of risk-adjusted returns.
“Besides structural promise, near-term factors we believe will drive the markets higher are robust activity data, impressive corporate earnings, easing oil prices, strong domestic flows, and recently light positioning by foreign investors. These developments should continue to support a combination of elevated valuations and low volatility,” the brokerage noted.
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Although there are concerns valuations might be stretched, experts believe this is restricted to some pockets. Nilesh Shah, MD and CEO of Kotak Mahindra AMC concedes there is some in certain pockets but points out cash is waiting on the sidelines. “Unlike the rally of 1991/92, or 2000, this is not purely a euphoric rally. Over the last few months, some people have been circumspect about taking positions, and are waiting for a fall before investing,” Shah observed.
Ramdeo Agrawal, chairman, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, has said the 133 million demat accounts are a sign of strong retail participation. Domestic investors, he said had been consistent investors though FPIs had been unpredictable.
HSBC strategists noted liquidity had doubled since the pandemic and primary market activity too had been strong at $100 bn since 2020. The breadth and depth of the market had improved, they said adding there had been a sharp jump in domestic participation.
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Eight of India’s top-10 most valued firms saw their market capitalizations (Mcap) surge by a combined Rs 1,83,290.36 crore last week, buoyed by a rally in equities led by IT giants Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Infosys.
The BSE benchmark index jumped 963.87 points, or 1.21%, during the week.
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